BOULDER, CO (May 8, 2025)—Most U.S. states continue to heavily rely on per-pupil funding models. Accordingly, projections of declining school-aged populations through 2030—combined with the rapid expansion of private school voucher policies—have raised serious concerns about the future adequacy of public school funding. A recent EdChoice report downplays these concerns.

However, in their review of The Enrollment Decline Windfall, David E. DeMatthews and Jinseok Shin of the University of Texas at Austin explain that the report’s analysis is fundamentally flawed due to its overly simplistic treatment of a complex issue.

The EdChoice report argues that districts with declining enrollment may end up with more resources per remaining student, partly because federal, state, and local funding levels do not always drop proportionately as student enrollment drops. But DeMatthews and Shin identify five major shortcomings that undermine the report’s conclusions about enrollment decline:

(a) it fails to consider structural cost differences that influence district finances;

(b) it oversimplifies the categorization of school district types;

(c) it lacks an adequate approach to analyzing longitudinal data;

(d) it includes faulty assumptions about how per-student expenditures benefit students; and

(e) it fails to consider how more severe declines in student enrollment can trigger reduced services, school closures, and other reductions that would negatively impact students, especially those with the greatest needs.

For these reasons, DeMatthews and Shin conclude that EdChoice’s report offers little of value to policymakers or state leaders. Its unsophisticated analysis fails to engage with the real complexities of public school funding and enrollment trends.

Find the review, by David E. DeMatthews and Jinseok Shin, at:
https://nepc.colorado.edu/review/enrollment

Find The Enrollment Decline Windfall, published by EdChoice, at: https://www.edchoice.org/research/the-enrollment-decline-windfall/