Most U.S. states use per-pupil funding, so projected declines in school-aged children through 2030 and expanding private school voucher programs have raised concerns about underfunded public schools. An EdChoice report argues these concerns are overstated, claiming that fewer students can mean more resources per student, as funding doesn’t always decline at the same rate as enrollment. However, the report uses an overly simplistic analysis to address a complex issue. It has five key flaws: It oversimplifies district types, ignores structural cost differences, mishandles longitudinal data, makes faulty assumptions about spending benefits, and overlooks how major enrollment declines can reduce services and harm vulnerable students. Overall, the report provides little value to policymakers or state leaders.

Suggested Citation: DeMatthews, D.E. & Shin, J. (2025). NEPC review: The enrollment decline windfall. Boulder, CO: National Education Policy Center. Retrieved [date] from https://nepc.colorado.edu/review/enrollment